Technological optimists like Julian Simon and Jan Narveson have argued that there are no real shortages of natural resources, since recycling, more efficient use, and the substitution of new materials and energy sources for old ones will provide us with the services we desire. James Howard Kunstler isn't buying that line. As a result, he foresees society undergoing radical changes in the coming decades.
Saturday, November 10, 2007
Accept no substitutes
Technological optimists like Julian Simon and Jan Narveson have argued that there are no real shortages of natural resources, since recycling, more efficient use, and the substitution of new materials and energy sources for old ones will provide us with the services we desire. James Howard Kunstler isn't buying that line. As a result, he foresees society undergoing radical changes in the coming decades.
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Although I haven't read Julian Simon's essay yet it seems to me that James Kunstler's article doesn't conflict with Simon's thesis.
While there will be radical change we will be able to find new technologies or even reinvent old ones. I would be very surprised if in rebuilding the old railways, for example, we didn't produce improve on the existing technologies as we are forced to overcome problems associated with their construction.
In essence, I do not find any problem with agreeing with both Simon and Kunstler. I have (if you will) faith in the continuation of the human race. We are much too creative to simply die out from even a very radical change in resources. Also, it seems evident to me that massive change will occur as a matter of necessity.
The whole thing is strikingly reminiscent of the documentary "The End of Suburbia".
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